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Monthly Archives: March 2012

Whatever the party in power under President Putin tries to do, it is effectively stuck.

If it continues on the same course of corruption and disregard for the people, the country will sink backwards and the infrastructure will steadily collapse.

Meanwhile attempts not to change anything are bound to fail, as Russian republics getting restless. The Caucasus remains poor and in strife. The failure of the Russian oligarchs to bother investing their own money in this area for various ski resorts and businesses and to attempt to impose this role on foreigners only goes to show how greedy they all are and how they really don’t care about their own country. Why doesn’t Vekselberg invest, for example, USD 3 billion in Chechnya, Ingushetia?

So the state authorities and the oligarchs in power are unwilling to invest in Russia for Russia’s sake, while the FSB is stretched just trying to keep order.

The only good thing about this state of the affairs is that the people will take more control of their lives and will eventually refuse to pay for corruption. They will make a stand. Given the power of Youtube, Facebook and other social networking sites, and the desire of the state authorities to divert attention from their indifference and apathy, such a stand will deliver results.

And will mark the first step on the path to reform in general.

I personally believe that change from within offers the best hope for Russia’s survival as one nation and for Russia to lead the way in future, once Putin and his entourage have been swept away and all the deputies in the servile State Duma have been kicked out.

While the protests continue in Russia, some of the protesters will demand simply some sign of reform from President Putin.

He in turn is likely to pay lip service, announcing the implementation of reforms. However, he will only have a year to demonstrate that these are real reforms.

If nothing happens and corruption continues to mushroom under Putin’s new term, the protests will grow.

This is where it gets interesting: if Putin were to undertake real reforms, he would lose the backing of the oligarchs backing him (Deripaska, Aven, Fridman, Potanin, Alekperov, Blavatnik, etc.), as they would suddenly not find it so easy to make money and would finally be exposed to competition at home (and not simply be able to  leverage the judiciary to secure the court decision they need). If this happens, then Putin would have to rely on his one key source of support Рthe FSB. Officers in the agency that have yet to benefit as much as they expected under Putin would probably leverage the uncertainty to wage war on the oligarchs backing Putin

As a result, the oligarchs might be forced to back a new candidate with their interests at heart. Here Prokhorov would be an ideal fit. However, the oligarchs don’t trust each other. Continued squabbling and fighting would open up the way for a new candidate, backed by the coverage of state TV.

Even if such candidate does come forward, it is unclear how he would garner much public support without reneging ties with the previous regime.

So the party in power is stuck with Putin and so real reform won’t happen.

This means that the situation could become decidedly unpleasant in 2014, in particular if the oil price were to fall…

 

So Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has been declared President for a third time after rigged elections.

It is highly likely that he would have won anyway, as the only candidate likely to secure the support of the protest vote and force the election to a second round, economist and opposition politician Grigory Yavlinsky was banned from participating in the elections allegedly owing to to the collection of false signatures among the 2 million that he collected. interestingly, Putin stooge and oligarch Mikhail Prokhorov was allowed to run, somehow collecting clean signatures, as did Putin in some miraculous manner.

Putin has always feared Yavlinsky, preventing his party Yabloko from being elected in the December elections through blatant vote-rigging.

Given this fear, what will Putin do if the protests against his election grow?

I would assume that he will allow the protests to be held, while simultaneously arresting and intimidating anyone who participates in the rallies. Most of the arrests and intimidation will be performed behind the scenes. This will be due to the Stalinist policy adopted by the Kremlin of divide and rule, basically emasculating the opposition by denying them the opportunity to rally behind a single figure.

Putin has so far sought to ridicule candidates he fears from Yavlinsky to highly respected writer Boris Akunin, while anti-corruption activist Navalny has been portrayed in the state media as a right-wing nationalist.

While this tactic will work for a while, over time it will have the opposite effect, with people coming to side with these individuals.

If the protests continue growing, then Putin is likely to seek to repress the opposition more and engineer the adoption by the servile State Duma of a law proclaiming Putin as President-for-life,  thereby emulating his colleague Nursultan Nazarbayev in Kazakhstan. This law will also exempt Putin from potential charges for crimes committed while in office.

The repressions will become increasingly violent, with the introduction of a curfew, a ban on meetings and assertions that all the protesters are being paid by the US (yes even the pensioners!)

In this case, if violent repression doesn’t work, Putin will attempt to slip out of the country to some den such as Switzerland, where he has amassed billions, or otherwise broker a deal for the transfer of power that exempts his stolen assets from recovery to the state.

 

 

So why did Vladimir Putin cry on hearing the presidential election results?

He knew that they had been rigged!

Given that he didn’t cry when the Kursk sank, leading to the loss of Russian lives and instead made a cruel joke about the incident on US TV, it has to be assumed that these were tears of joy:

I have the following conjecture that has not been proposed yet by the mainstream media.

Putin plans to follow in the footsteps of his comrade from Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, and engineer his domination on the Russian political scene until his final days.

In other words, at some point, presumably sooner rather than later, the servile State Duma will propose the adoption of a law declaring that Putin will be President for Life.

If he decides to step down at some point, he will still be able to control the new president from behind the scenes, stepping in and deposing the new President “in response to the public mood” or for some other reason.

Furthermore, the new law will state that Putin cannot be charged for any crimes committed while in office (such as the amassing of a fortune rumoured to exceed USD 20 billion in assets through various  interests in different businesses (shares in LUKOIL, Gunvor, Rosneft, etc.) and also cash accounts in Switzerland, Germany, etc.

You heard it here first on 9 March 2012.