According to Russian business daily Vedomosti [12 November 2012), the Ministry for Economic Development has submitted a forecast on Russia’s socio-economic development to 2030. According to two versions of the forecast – innovation-based and forced, Russia may overcome the historic gap with the developed world both technologically and in terms of living standards by 2030, with oil & gas accounting for most of exports, with science and knowledge and not production serving as the basis for revenues.
According to Deputy Minister for Economic Development Andrei Klepach, the implementation of large-scale development projects will change the shape of the economy. He claims that this will not require any new innovation, but simple implementation of existing government programmes.
According to these scenarios, Russia will grow more rapidly than the global economy (4.1 or 5.4 per cent per annum from 2013-2030, compared to global growth of 3 per cent). GDP per capita will increase by 2020 from almost 60 per cent of the level of the eurozone to 78-87 per cent, and increase the European level by 2030 and will be 10 per cent less than in the USA.
Klepach admits that this can only be achieved if budget rules are alleviated. Interestingly, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development issued a forecast on the global economy to 2060, which indicates that Russia will not reach European levels, owing in part to the ageing of the population.